Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil War

Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil War Introduction The article discusses the relationship between the civil war duration and ethnic polarization. The arguments in the article provide that civil wars are key barriers to the development of the economy. Civil wars lead to the destruction of infrastructure, loss of human life and have an effect on future prospects for investment.Advertising We will write a custom essay sample on Ethnic Polarization and the Duration of Civil War specifically for you for only $16.05 $11/page Learn More The causes of civil wars can be analyzed in relation to their onsets, the duration of the wars, as well as the incidence of civil wars. Civil wars may start randomly, after which conflicts emerge. Factors such as a country having mountains where rebels can hide also contribute to the onset of civil wars. Civil wars may also emanate from low per capita income; this makes a civil war last longer than it would have lasted if the per capita income was high. Lack of democrac y may also trigger a civil war as rebels form militia groups in order to oust an undemocratic regime (Montalvo Reynal-Querol 123-143). Literature Review The available literature indicates that certain factors can be attributed to the onset of civil wars. One of the methods used in the estimation of the civil war onset includes logic regression, which analyses some of the causes as high population, with high primary commodity exports, as well as a population that is highly dispersed. Inequalities in incomes, ethnic differences and political liberties may not be significant risk factors for civil war. The available literature also indicates another probable causes of civil war which is oil exports in a country. An analysis on the incidence of civil war shows ethnic polarization as one of the factors affecting the incidence of such wars (Montalvo Reynal-Querol 123-143). Analysis by Montalvo and Reynal-Qureol shows that democracy and export have little impact on civil wars. In terms o f duration of civil wars, Gates and Strand estimate that major factors influencing this issue are political instability, parallel conflicts and autocratic regimes. Studies also indicate that income inequality can be regarded as a main cause of civil wars (Montalvo Reynal-Querol 123-143). Method/Methodology Certain methods can be used to explain the relationship that exists between civil wars incidence and ethnic polarization. One method, which can be utilized, is the traditional ration form, which defines a quadratic based cost function, contest success function, as well as pure contest equilibrium.Advertising Looking for essay on ethnicity studies? Let's see if we can help you! Get your first paper with 15% OFF Learn More Another model that can be employed to establish relationship between conflict and ethnic polarization, is taking a country that consists of two social groups. This model shows that the discovery of a natural resource may trigger violence b etween the two groups. The methodology used to establish the relationship between civil wars and ethnic polarization is also based on measuring the duration in relation to years, months, weeks, as well as days (Montalvo Reynal-Querol 123-143). Methods such as Kaplan-Meier estimation of the survival function can be used to establish the relationship existing between ethnic polarization and duration of civil wars. Based on this method, survival function of countries that have low ethnic polarization tends to be dominated by nations with high ethnic polarization (Montalvo Reynal-Querol 123-143). Results As indicated in the results provided in the article, ethnic polarization has a profound impact on civil war duration. More pronounced ethnic polarization indicates that the civil wars will last longer than expected. Therefore, ethnic disparities within a population may cause civil wars that may even last for decades. Attention should be directed at polarized countries in order to come up with measures, which will ensure civil wars do not take a toll on the population (Montalvo Reynal-Querol 123-143). Montalvo, Jose Marta Reynal-Querol. Ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Econ Gov 11 (2010):123–143. Print.

JetBlue Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

JetBlue - Case Study Example Trends within the US airline industry such as crude oil pricing and passenger fees, post 9/11 and pilot shortages have substantial effects on the performance and strategies of airline companies. Prices of crude oil have increased considerably in last few years, which has had a substantial effect on the pricing of passenger fees. For instance, in 2008, crude oil prices rose to a record $140 per barrel and this price swell caused airlines to labor to offset fuel costs. Many companies were forced to implement new passenger fees to cater for the surge in fuel prices. However, while fuel prices are currently low, airlines continue to increase revenue by passing costs to its customers. Shortages of pilots have also forced companies to adjust their strategies. As baby boomers retire, the airline industry suffers a shortage of pilots. Prior to becoming captains, pilots have to gain sufficient flight hours. The International Air Transport Association asserts that airlines need nearly 3,000 ad ditional pilots each year, which is far more than training schools provide (Thompson et al., 2010). Post 9/11 aviation security also influences airlines’ strategies. After the 9/11 terror attack, Congress implemented the Aviation and Transportation Security Act (ATS). This led to the creation of the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and established that federal employees should be in charge of airport security at all airlines (Kaplan, 2006). This forced airlines to institute numerous layers of security. JetBlue’s strategic intent   David Nelleman founded JetBlue with the view to bring humanity to air travel. The aim was to offer lowly discounted comfort and service to customers. The company’s philosophy was to delay flights instead of cancelling them entirely. The firm was the first airline to publish a bill of rights for its passengers. This document outlines its policies with regard to the airline’s customers. It launched electronic ticketi ng to enhance convenience and offered additional services such as in-seat television, as well as PayPal payments for tickets. In order to enhance its customer and shareholder value, the airline established rapid and strategic growth initiatives. In 2000, the firm made a rather chancy decision by starting services in New York’s JFK Airport, which was already quite congested. JetBlue took advantage of the lighter 8 to 9am flight window to offer appealing flights to young and wealthy New Yorkers and those travelling to the city. In 2008, JetBlue launched Terminal 5 at JFK to offer customers more efficacy and convenience, while also saving them up to $50 million in fuel, vouchers and labor. Between 2003 and 2008, the airline launched service to numerous destinations such as Portland, Fort Lauderdale, and San Diego among others. By the end of 2007, JetBlue had expanded its operations to more than 53 destinations (Thompson et al., 2010). However, this impressive growth did not imme diately trickle down to add shareholder value.    JetBlue’s financial objectives While JetBlue showed immense promise, its stock values dropped by 50% in a span of five years ending December 2007. This is because between 2003 and 2007, the company’s operating expenditure increased by 222%. This is primarily because of jet fuel (532% rise) and interest expenditures (658% rise). Rather than handling the interest expendit

Not ablicable Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Not ablicable - Essay Example This not only increases the temperature on earth’s surface but also the temperature prevailing over the oceanic region of the world. This remarkable rise of temperature is on account of pollution occurring all over the world. The polluted atmospheric condition over the earth is capable to develop infrared radiation. The main gases present in the earth’s atmosphere are water content, Ozone, Carbon dioxide, Nitrous oxide and methane. These gases are termed as Green House Gases and have certain roles to increase the temperature on Earth’s crust. The industrial transformations and development have increased the production of greenhouse gases in the atmospheric air and is considered as one of the main reasons for the global warming. This phenomenon has observed from the middle of the twentieth century. The concentration of the gaseous media of the atmospheric air has great influence to increase global warming. This is affected in accordance with two principles. One is by the direct emission of infra red radiation from the gaseous constituents of atmospheric air and the other is indirectly through clouds. The solid and liquid particles present in the atmospheric air are responsible for the indirect process to develop the global temperature. These solid and liquid suspensions present in the atmospheric air are generally termed as ‘aerosols’. They are universally originated gases substances and the carriers of these substances to the atmosphere are wind. During their travel with wind the aerosol substances undergo tremendous chemical and physical changes naturally. The characteristic features such as Physical, Chemical and concentration of aerosols present in atmospheric air are also taken in to consideration while thinking about the indirect influence on global warming. The risk management Cycle The risk management cycle points out the volume of risk factor caused due to the nuclear emission occurred from the nuclear power plant

The utilization of Furlough days to combat budget issues Research Paper

The utilization of Furlough days to combat budget issues - Research Paper Example From the research it is clear that the organizational practice involves forecasting and determining the major drawbacks that may hinder effective performance of employees and finding a lasting solution. Human resource management entails measures for improving the workplace environment, recruitment, performance and reward management among other activities that enhance the productivity of employees. Organizations maintain competitiveness through inventiveness and uniqueness in their operations. These are accomplished through maintenance of a committed and competent work force. High commitment among employees is important in ensuring customer satisfaction. When an organization succeeds in maintaining competence and satisfaction among employees, it is able to maintain strong customer relationships as well as a strong brand image. These are among the aspects that determine an organization’s productivity since happy employees are satisfied employees, who are able to own the organiza tional goal. Strategic human resource management involves supporting the employees to help in establishing organizational goals. Organizations that engage in employee training and supporting innovative ideas are usually competitive in the market. Strategic human resource management helps in accomplishing employee satisfaction. More over, it helps in maintaining skilled workers in the organization. However, an organization may be faced with budget issues that may hinder the accomplishment of human resource management strategies. This paper presents a critique of the utilization of Furlough days to combat budget issues. Utilization of Furlough Days Furlough days negatively affect the morale of employees due to the breaks in their day to day activities as they are ordered to take compulsory unpaid leaves. Even though employees maintain permanent employment in an organization, the practice may be frustrating to many since it decreases their income. Depending on the nature of the budget deficit, furlough days may be scheduled for a number of days per month or one day per week until the financial shortfall is dealt with. While an organization focuses on the shortfalls in its budget, the workload increases and employees have to be overworked to cover the days that they do not work (Whitfield & Poole, 1997). Schrader & Lawless (2004) observe that while losing the job completely may be more frustrating to the employees, the regular loss of income and employment benefits through furlough days may cause resentment and the urge to look for an alternative job and hence a high employee turn over. High employee turn over is detrimental to an organization’s productivity and reputation. It is usually costly to hire and train new employees to become competent in the workplace. The organization looses skilled employees to competitors, and more so, skills attained from the organization (Buller & McEvoy, 2012). It may be a great loss to the organization especially when an e mployee exposes company information to competitors (Luthans & Stajkovic, 1999). The future projections may not be realized if the organization relied on training an employee to attain a particular goal in future. Customers may loose confidence in the organization due to disruption in service delivery especially when the departing employees were at strategic positions of service delivery. Other customers build their trust on particular employees especially for the services that require one-on-one relationships (Huselid & Becker, 2011). Human resource managers need to ensure that the employee turn ove

How atmosphere is created in Victorian ghost stories Essay Example for Free

How atmosphere is created in Victorian ghost stories Essay Discuss and compare how atmosphere is created in three Victorian ghost stories Atmosphere is created in Victorian ghost stories by using a few main factors- -Characters -figurative language -setting -themes -Era (period of time) The majority of Victorian ghost authors use these factors because they are best to create atmosphere in any story, i.e. for a theme you can use fear, and for a setting you can use an old abandoned mansion, a story can easily be set around this because the two factors fit together as the same genre. The first author that will be used as an example will be using as an example will be Charles Dickens, he was born in 1812, He had a marvellous photographic memory which helped him base some of his characters on people he had met earlier on in his life. The story I will be focusing on by dickens will be THE SIGNALMAN, this story is a good choice because its atmosphere is built up as soon as you read the story, THE SIGNALMAN is being narrated by the gentleman in the story, he is a means for creating atmosphere because he puts in a first person perspective, he gives opinion and tells you what the scenery looks like, characters are almost a part of the setting, they create a mood, for example the protagonist in the story spends most of his time learning from the signalman- how I ought to act, having become the recipient of this disclosure? I had proved the man to be intelligent, vigilant, painstaking, and exact, at first the protagonist sees the signalman to be a solitary, ghost of a man, but getting to know him, he sees him as a man waiting for something to come (this is now figurative language), what the author is trying to tell you is that he is not waiting to change the train track, but is waiting for the warning (or signal) towards his death. One of the themes is either death or hell, for example, in the start the signalman was shocked when the narrator yells at him halloa, below there, the signalman thinks that the protagonist is a ghost (the signal man is waiting for death). A quote that can support the theme of hell is: just then there came a vague vibration of the earth and air, quickly changed into a violent pulsation and an oncoming rush that caused me to start back, this shows that this character is not use to trains (most likely because of the era (period of time) , in which trains are relatively new and many people are scared of them), he may find them monstrous, figuratively, the ground quivering and the protagonist going down into the trench may possibly mean the earth is opening, and he is descending into hell. The era (period of time) also helps with the building of the atmosphere for the reason that the story is set around trains, and in Victorian times the general public were scared of trains which would add to the eeriness of the account being told. The author will use characters as a tool to build atmosphere by explaining what he or she looks like, how they act and what they do, for example, And drawing nearer to him, saw that he was a dark sallow man with a dark beard and rather heavy eyebrows, the narrator is describing the signalman as a person who does not interact with others and as if he is already dead because of his pale skin, deep voice, and in another part of the story he is described as having an infection of the mind, adding to the theme of death. The setting in the signalman is dim and creepy, this is explained by the protagonist, down in the deep trench, and mine was so high above him, so steeped in the angry sunset, the trench described in this quote is intended to represent the protagonist on earth, looking down into his grave, it could be that the point of the story is to represent the protagonist death. The next Victorian ghost author that will be used is Abraham stoker (Bram stoker); he is best known as the creator of the fictional character Count Dracula. The story which will be used is THE JUDGES HOUSE. One of the themes in this story is fear, this is mainly created by using setting and characters, for example, the protagonist, Malcolm Malcolmson needs a place of solitude to do his scientific research and so he finds an old shambling, heavy built house of Jacobean style , with heavy gables and windows, set higher than normal, customary houses he finds the perfect house for his research, this is also the perfect house to build suspense, horror and the theme, fear. This particular story brings different eras(periods of time) to it because the house that malcolmson takes residency in has a history, as malcolmson asks to stay in the house to the landlady, she replies not in the judges house!, she said, and grew pale as she spoke the abode of the judge who was held in great terror because of the harsh sentences and his hostility towards the prisoners at assizes, this makes the plot, and in turn it creates a negative atmosphere towards the house. This quote can also explain how the characters create atmosphere by use of their language , another example of this would be mercy on us, said Ms. Witham an old devil, and sitting on a chair by the fireside , take care sir, take care, Ms. Witham the woman speaking, sounds as if she is nervous just talking about the judge. In this story a setting can also represent a character i.e. the rats are meant to represent the judge, because it keeps catching the attention of malcolmson, he raised a book in his right hand and taking careful aim, flung it at the rat, it sprang aside like a missile, he took another book and repeated his action, and a third, until he had only one book left, the rat squeaked and seemed afraid, malcolmson more eager to strike, the book flew with a resounding blow. The book that hit the rat was the bible, usually in any Victorian ghost story the protagonist will have to use a religious object to get rid of the villain, i.e. in Bram stokers Dracula the protagonist (van Helsing) uses a cross to fend Dracula. So the rat (the judge) will have to be scared of the bible. The rats are also meant to representing the judges evil spreading like a plague, and ruining everybodys lives around it. The last author that will be used to answer the question is Herbert George wells (h.g wells) he was a Victorian sci-fi writer most famous for his novel war of the worlds. The story he wrote that will be used is the THE RED ROOM. This will give good examples of how atmosphere is created by using characters; in the beginning of the story there is a conversation between the protagonist and the pensioners, the pensioners help create atmosphere because they are all somehow crippled, for example, its your own choosing, said the man with the withered arm once more a second old man entered, more bent, more wrinkled, more aged than the first. The reason these characters are like this is because they keep having to lecture the protagonist about not going to the red room, he wont listen because no one would like to believe two senile old pensioners over their own opinion. The setting of the red room is a slightly different to other ghost stories because it is less secluded (there are more characters in the key building). It seems bizarre that the antagonist would only appear when a character is alone, as if it is shy: as I stood undecided, an invisible hand seemed to sweep out the two candles on the table, with a cry of terror I dashed to the alcove. The example of era (period in time) that happens in the story is more of a thought than it being existent: an older age when things spiritual were indeed to be feared, when common sense was uncommon, an age, when omens and witches were credible, and ghost beyond denying. This creates an Atmosphere of wickedness because it reminds you of the period in which everything was religious (religion can get rid of evil) and the church led the public to be against witches, demons and the devil. In all three of the stories there will be a person(s) who has experienced or witnessed the horrors that have happened before, they create atmosphere by giving the story a history.` Conclusion: Atmosphere is created in Victorian ghost stories by using some of the factors said before -Era (period of time) -Theme -Characters -Setting These factors are HOW atmosphere is created in these three Victorian ghost stories because they are best to put what is needed for a ghost story in the plot: suspense, history, death and a mystery to be solved.

Dubliners :: essays research papers

Dubliners is considered a champion among books written in the English language. James Joyce's characterization of not only the people in the stories, but of Dublin itself, demonstrates his great ability as an author. Dubliners is not a book with a normal story line, a plot, and a definite climax and resolution. Instead, it is more of a setting, an atmosphere, an "epiphany" as Joyce called it. To understand the book, it is recommendable to focus on Irish history, and more specifically, Charles Stewart Parnell. He is a figure alluded to in this and other books by Joyce. He has been referred to as the "uncrowned king of Ireland."The series of short stories included in Dubliners depict a broken morale in and around the city of Dublin. The early 1900's marked a time of disheartened spirits not only in Dublin but all of Ireland. England still clutched Ireland under it's own control.. The citizens were bitter and dismayed.It wasn't until 1922 that Ireland freed itself from England. Up until that time, Ireland was occupied and ruled from Britain. The occupation had begun hundreds of years before, but from the end of the 18th century, a distinct Irish nationalism began to evolve. From 1801 onwards, Ireland had no Parliament of it's own. It was ruled by the Parliament in Britain which consisted of the House of Commons and House of Lords.Meanwhile, in the 1840's, a small group formed out of the Young Ireland movement. The leader, Thomas Davis, expressed a concept of nationality embracing all who lived in Ireland regardless of creed or origin. A small insurrection in 1848 failed, but their ideas influenced the coming generations. This small nationalism was illustrated in the stories "Evelyn" and "A Painful Case." In the latter, Mr. James Duffy, despite his dislike of the "modern an pretentious" Dublin, decides to stay at least in the suburbs and commute back and forth to his house. Also in the story of "Eveline", we see her refusing to leave with her fiancà © because of her ties to her home and her city. She couldn't leave; she couldn't abandon it. The small or perhaps hidden pride in the city of Dublin displayed itself in subtle methods throughout the book. After the potato famine in Ireland, a group was founded in 1858 known as the Irish Republican Brotherhood. Also known as the Fenians, they formed a secret society which rejected constitutional attempts to gain independence.

Management Economics Essay

Introduction. The business cycle or economic cycle refers to the ups and downs seen somewhat simultaneously in most parts of an economy. The cycle involves shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid growth of output (recovery and prosperity), alternating with periods of relative stagnation or decline (contraction or recession). These fluctuations are often measured using the real gross domestic product. To call those alternances â€Å"cycles† is rather misleading, as they don’t tend to repeat at fairly regular time intervals. Most observers find that their lengths (from peak to peak, or from trough to trough) vary, so that cycles are not mechanical in their regularity. Since no two cycles are alike in their details, some economists dispute the existence of cycles and use the word â€Å"fluctuations† instead. Others see enough similarities between cycles that the cycle is a valid basis of studying the state of the economy. A key question is whether or not there are similar mechanisms that generate recessions and/or booms that exist in capitalist economies so that the dynamics that appear as a cycle will be seen again and again. Just as there is no regularity in the timing of business cycles, there is no reason why cycles have to occur at all. The prevailing view among economists is that there is a level of economic activity, often referred to as full employment, at which the economy theoretically could stay forever. Full employment refers to a level of production at which all the inputs to the production process are being used, but not so intensively that they wear out, break down, or insist on higher wages and more vacations. If nothing disturbs the economy, the full-employment level of output, which naturally tends to grow as the population increases and new technologies are discovered, can be maintained forever. There is no reason why a time of full employment has to give way to either a full-fledged boom or a recession. Text. Business Cycle, term used in economics to designate changes in the economy.  Ever since the Industrial Revolution, the level of business activity in industrialized capitalist countries has veered from high to low, taking the economy with it. Characteristics of business cycle are: -A trade cycle is wave like movement. -Cyclical fluctuations are recurrent in nature. -Expansion and contraction in a trade cycle are cumulative in effect. -Trade cycles are all pervading in their impact. -It is characterized by the presence of crisis i.e. downward movement is more sudden and violent than the change from downward to 0upward. -Cycles differ in timing and amplitude they have a common pattern of phases, which are sequential in nature. Phases Of Business Cycles: The ups and downs in the economy are reflected by the fluctuations in aggregate economic activities such as production, investment, employment, prices, wages, bank credits etc. The various phases of the trade cycles are: Prosperity: Expansion And Peak. This phase begins with the rise in the national output, consumer and capital expenditure, level of employment and inventories. Debtors find it more convenient to pay off their debts. Bank rate increases so credit facilities, idle funds for investment in production since stock prices increases due to increase in profitability and dividend. Purchasing power continues to flow in and out of all kinds of economic activities. Expansion continues with the multiplier process. In earlier/ later stages additional workers can be obtained by giving higher wage than prevailing in the market. Input prices increases rapidly which leads to increase in cost of production. As a result price increases and cost of living increases which lower the consumption rate. The demand for new houses, cement, iron, labor tends to halt and same is for furniture, automobiles etc. This makes reaching the peak. To summarize we can say that: -It is a turning point in the business cycle – the end of expansion -Economy at or close to full employment -Capital and Labor Utilization at a high -Prices and cost rise at a moderate rates -Firms profit at high -Interest rates rise -Consumers and firms expectations favorable Turning Point And Recession. After reaching the peak, demand starts declining. Producer unaware of this fact continues to increase production and investment. But after sometime they realize that their inventories are pilling up and they have indulged in over-investment. Consequently further investment plans will be given up-order for new machinery, raw materials. Demand for labor ceases. Temporary and casual workers are removed. Producers of capital goods and raw materials cancel their order. This is the turning point and beginning of recession. Further the income of wage and interest earners also decreases. This causes demand recession. Producer lower down the prices to get rid of inventories  but consumer expects further decreases in price and hence postpones their purchase. Investments starts declining leading to decrease in income and consumption, bank credit shrink and prices decrease. At this stage the process of recession is complete and the economy enters the phase of depression. To summarize this: -Consumer spending falls -Investment spending falls -Inventories accumulate -Firms profit’s decline -Business Failure increase Depression And Trough. This is the phase of relativity low economic activity. It indicates fall in production, increased unemployment and a rapid fall in the general price index. Workers lose their job, debtors find it difficult to pay off their debts, and investment in stock becomes less profitable. At the depth of depression, all economic activities touch the bottom and phase of trough is reached. Weaker firms are eliminated from the industry. At this point, the process of depression is complete. Due to unemployment, labor starts working at lower wages. Consumer expects no further decline in price and start spending. Hence demand picks up. Stock prices fall during recession; the prices of raw material fall faster than the prices of the finished products. Therefore profitability tends to increase after the trough. Producers’ start replacing worth-out capital, investment picks up and employment gradually increases. Following this demand increases, bank credit becomes easily available at a lower rate. Due to increase in income and consumption, the multiplier effect increases the economic activities. The phase of depression comes to an end over time  depending on the speed of recovery. To summarize this: -The turning point in the cycle – the end of contraction -Characterized by high unemployment and low consumer demand relative to industry capacity -Greatest period of excess capacity over the cycle -Business profits are low or negative -Some prices are falling other unchanged -Consumers and firms expectations about future are bleak Recovery. It starts when prices further stop falling. Producers see no risk in undertaking production. Firms use idle capacity to increase production. This generates employment and income, which creates additional demand for consumer goods and services. Businessman when realize increase in profitability. Hence they speed up production machinery. Businessman starts increasing their inventories, consumer start buying more and more of durable goods and variety items. With this process catching up, the economy enters the phase of expansion and prosperity. The cycle is thus complete. To summarize this: -Employment, production, prices and wages begin to rise at roughly the same time -Expectations of consumers and firms optimistic or favorable -Investment spending increases -Consumer demand rises Causes of Cycles. Economists did not try to determine the causes of business cycles until the increasing severity of economic depressions became a major concern in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Two external factors that have been suggested as possible causes are sunspots and psychological trends. The sunspot theory of the British economist William Jevons was once widely accepted. According to Jevons, sunspots affect meteorological conditions. That is, during periods of sunspots, weather conditions are often more severe. Jevons felt that sunspots affected the quantity and quality of harvested crops; thus, they affected the economy. A psychological theory of business cycles, formulated by the British economist Arthur Pigou, states that the optimism or pessimism of business leaders may influence an economic trend. Some politicians have clearly subscribed to this theory. During the early years of the Great Depression, for instance, President Herbert Hoover tried to appear publicly optimistic about the inherent vigor of the American economy, thus hoping to stimulate an upsurge. Several economic theories of the causes of business cycles have been developed. According to the under consumption theory, identified particularly with the British economist John Hobson, inequality of income causes economic declines. The market becomes glutted with goods because the poor cannot afford to buy, and the rich cannot consume all they can afford. Consequently, the rich accumulate savings that are not reinvested in production, because of insufficient demand for goods. This savings accumulation disrupts economic equilibrium and begins a cycle of production cutbacks. The Austrian-American economist Joseph Schumpeter, a proponent of the innovation theory, related upswings of the business cycle to new inventions, which stimulate investment in capital-goods industries. Because new inventions are developed unevenly, business conditions must alternately be  expansive and recessive. The Austrian-born economists Friedrich von Hayek and Ludwig von Mises subscribed to the overinvestment theory. They suggested that instability is the logical consequence of expanding production to the point where less efficient resources are drawn upon. Production costs then rise, and, if these costs cannot be passed on to the consumer, the producer cuts back production and lays off workers. A monetary theory of business cycles stresses the importance of the money supply in the economic system. Since many businesses must borrow money to operate or expand production, the availability and cost of money influence their decisions. Sir Ralph George Hawtrey suggested that changes in interest rates determine whether executives decrease or increase their capital investments, thus affecting the cycle. Regulating the Cycle Since the Great Depression, devices have been built into most economies to help prevent severe business declines. For instance, unemployment insurance provides most workers with some income when they are laid off. Social security and pensions paid by many organizations furnish some income to the increasing number of retired people. Although not as powerful as they once were, trade unions remain an obstacle against the cumulative wage drop that aggravated previous depressions. Schemes to support crop prices (such as the European Common Agricultural Policy) shield farmers from disastrous loss of income. The government can also attempt direct intervention to counter a recession. There are three major techniques available: monetary policy, fiscal policy, and incomes policy. Economists differ sharply in their choice of technique Some economists prefer monetary policy, including the American Milton Friedman and other advocates of monetarism, and is followed by most conservative governments. Monetary policy involves controlling, via the  central bank, the money supply and interest rates. These determine the availability and costs of loans to businesses. Tightening the money supply theoretically helps to counteract inflation; loosening the supply helps recovery from a recession. When inflation and recession occur simultaneously–a phenomenon often called stagflation–it is difficult to know which monetary policy to apply. Considered more effective by American economist John Kenneth Galbraith are fiscal measures, such as increased taxation of the wealthy, and an incomes policy, which seeks to hold wages and prices down to a level that reflects productivity growth. This latter policy has not had much success in the post-World War II period. Conclusion. Thus we can say that the central idea of business-cycle literature, that the economy has regular and periodic waves–a cycle–lasting for several years, has few adherents today. Perhaps such cycles never existed, or perhaps they once did but no longer do because the government now plays an active role in the economy. However, the business-cycle approach remains useful because it is an easy way to introduce a number of macroeconomic topics, including the adjustment process that remains central in macroeconomics.